If you read the past 2 TSP Weekly Newsletters and the Market Update from yesterday, this Alert Analysis should come as no surprise. If you have not read the 10 October Market Update, I recommend reading or listening to the video. It goes into detail regarding the overlapping support levels that provided a platform for the rally we have seen over the past few days.
The S&P500 (C fund) closed the day on Tuesday with a buy trigger for the Grow Model Portfolio. Price finished above the 20DMA, RSI above 50, CCI above 0 and MACD had crossed positive. This is the algorithm for the model portfolio. Meeting these four conditions gives us the highest level of confidence that the rally will continue. Of course, there are no guarantees!
In addition to the buy trigger, we have major support at the 200DMA and the upward sloping trendline that began at the October 2022 low. This is a low risk entry point for the C fund, especially given the seasonal tailwinds of the 4th quarter BUT, it's NEVER a sure thing! The line in the sand is a daily close below the 4200 on the S&P500.
The chart of the C fund is much stronger than the chart of the S fund. Also, the relative chart of the C fund to the S fund heavily favors the C fund. For these reasons, the new allocation of the Grow Model Portfolio is 100% C fund.New Grow Model Portfolio Allocation: 100% C Fund
GrowMyTSP.com does NOT provide personal investment advice. The Alert and Analysis are designed for you to make your own reallocation decisions based on your personal circumstances and risk tolerance. This Alert analysis details the current allocations within the “Grow Model Portfolio”. You can follow along with these allocations or use this information to make your own reallocation decisions.