The Alert & Alert Analysis Explained
GrowMyTSP.com is, first and foremost, an educational site. Secondly, we provide weekly analysis of the market as it relates to managing your TSP account. Our goal is to teach the fundamentals of technical analysis and pattern recognition, applied specifically to the TSP funds. Utilizing these tools and the weekly market analysis we provide, subscribers to the site can make informed decisions when managing their individual TSP accounts, within the context of their PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND RISK TOLERANCE.

The Grow Model Portfolio is an actively managed model of the five Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) funds. The model includes research and analysis of the market and its impact on the corresponding TSP Funds. The strategy of the model is to maximize TSP returns and protect against catastrophic loss, given the restrictions of the TSP rules (more on these restrictions below).

Model Change Alert (aka The Alert)

When market conditions warrant a change in the Grow Model Portfolio, the new allocations within the Portfolio are posted to the Member Dashboard at GrowMyTSP.com. At the same time, an Alert is sent to subscribers via text and email, informing them of the change in the Model Portfolio. Subscribers are free to follow along with the new allocations or use this information to make their own reallocation decisions.

TSP Restrictions

There are 2 rules that apply to all reallocations that are critical to understand. The first is the "Noon Rule". The second is the "2 Move Per Month Rule".

The noon rule requires that TSP investors make a reallocation request at TSP.gov before noon East Coast time, to get that days closing price. This is extremely important to understand! If a request is made to reallocate from the C fund to the G fund anytime prior to noon, the transaction is executed at that days closing price. If a request is made later than noon, the transaction is executed at the following days closing price. For example, if you make a reallocation request on Friday at 9AM, the transaction happens at Friday's closing price. If you make a reallocation request on Friday at 2PM, the transaction happens at Monday's closing price.

The 2 move per month rule says that TSP investors get 2 reallocations per calendar month. Any additional reallocations can only increase your holdings in the G fund. This sounds simple but can be complicated and have a big impact on how you utilize the 2 moves. Let's say you enter the month invested 100% in the C fund. You could reallocate to the G fund for your first move, back to the C fund for your second move, and back to the G fund again for a 3rd move. If you enter a month invested 100% in the G fund, you could reallocate to the C fund for your first move and back to the G fund for your second move. In this case, you could not make another move until the next calendar month. The first 2 moves can be to any combination of TSP funds. Any subsequent moves can only increase your holdings in the G fund.

Combining the Alert, Alert Analysis, and TSP Restrictions

The decision process for making a change in the Grow Model Portfolio is on-going. We constantly monitor market conditions with respect to the Portfolio algorithm. Once a buy or sell triggers in the Portfolio, we generally look to price action at the open on the following day for confirmation, before making a final reallocation decision.

The market opens at 9:30AM and any reallocation must be made by noon to get that days closing price. As the first hour of trading can be very erratic, we make a final decision at 11AM at the latest. At that point, we post the Alert with the new Grow Model Portfolio allocation and send text messages and emails to subscribers. Once the texts and emails are sent, they go into a que and take some amount of time to reach subscribers. Subscriber receipt of text and email is out of our control. The best way to ensure timely receipt of a change in the Portfolio is to check the Member Dashboard at 11AM East Coast time each day. A change in the Portfolio will not post later than 11AM.

Given the time constraints on the morning that an Alert is posted, the Alert Analysis document cannot post before the Alert. The Alert Analysis document is a summary of all pertinent data and analysis that was used in making each change to the Grow Model Portfolio. The document takes a significant amount of time to prepare and is designed to give subscriber a full understanding of the reasons behind each change in the Portfolio.

The TSP is a wealth building vehicle, not a day trading platform. The day that reallocations are executed is certainly important but, what's most important is the big picture. Being in the stock funds when the market is trending up and in the G fund, managing downside risk, when the market is trending down.

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Thrift Savings Plan Disclaimer
Neither growmytsp.com nor any of its partners or representatives is in any way affiliated with the United States Government, The Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board (FRTIB.gov) or the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP.gov), and any service being offered is not sanctioned by the United States Government, the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board or the Thrift Savings Plan.
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