Sunday Update: 7 January 2018
What a first week of 2018! All 3 TSP stock funds started the year with a bang! I have no doubt that this will be a very exciting year… We will inevitably see a pretty substantial decline at some point in 2018. The decline should be relatively painful in the short run, just because the market has gone up so quickly over the past year. Having said that, I’m going to make an argument that in the VERY long run, this rally that started in 2009 may just be the beginning…
Take a look at the S&P500 (C Fund) chart below from 1926 to Present. The S&P500 rallied for close to 40 years following the bottom in 1932. Following the 1975 bottom, it rallied for about 34 years. While there were smaller scale bull and bear markets along the way, these two 30+year periods generated tremendous wealth for stock market participants. The big question is, are we in the beginning stages of another 30+ year extended bull market? While there is no crystal ball, market patterns tend to repeat and the chart loves symmetry. While we will certainly have short term ups and downs, it is entirely possible for this long term rally to continue for another 20+ years!
Bringing things back to the present day, the first week of 2018 was huge for all 3 stock funds! As long as the technical indicators continue to support the rise in prices, the stock funds are the place to be invested to maximize your TSP account.
All 3 stock funds are up on a weekly basis. The C and I funds are both up over 2.5% for the week with the S fund trailing at 1.7%.
We will see a decline in 2018 but, with breakouts like these in both price and technicals, a serious decline isn’t likely any time soon.
If you missed the Webinar in December, now’s your chance to check it out! The next Webinar will be Friday night, 12 January, at 6PM. We spend about an hour including Q&A, looking at the TSP calculators, and realtime stock fund charts. See the link below and sign up ASAP. Seating is limited!
Please post questions to comments and have a great week!