Sunday Update: 28 July 2019

It was a mixed and volatile week for the TSP stock funds.  The C fund finished the week up 1.65%, S fund up 2.05%, and I fund down 0.02%.  All possibilities that we have been discussing for the past several weeks/Months are still in play.  Day to day volatility is pretty high, as we’ll see in the short term chart of the C fund below.  That’s why it’s important to focus on the long term (weekly charts) when making TSP reallocation decisions.  More on this when we look at the long term charts below.

Short Term

The C fund has been quite volatile on a day to day basis over the past couple of months.  We have seen big daily price swings in both directions.  Fortunately, at this point, we have a pretty well established short term trend line that can provide some structure going forward.  We want to see the C fund stay above this line.  A daily close below this line is a concern.  I daily close below 2975 is a serious problem…

Long Term

The C fund closed at new all time highs for the week.  This was a welcome move after last week’s reversal.  There is still some upside room for price advance before hitting resistance at the upper trend line.  I would expect some significant resistance at the 3050 +/- level.  On the other hand, a strong move above 3050 would be extremely bullish…

The S fund had a very strong week, closing above 1450 on a weekly basis, and taking out the high from May.  The next significant resistance level for the S fund is 1500, the prior all time high and the upper channel line.  I would expect significant resistance at 1500 +/-.

The I fund gapped up thru 66 during the first week of July.  Unfortunately the breakout attempt failed and prices have been consolidating for the past 3 weeks.  The good news is that the support level of the May high is holding.  This is a very good sign.  I would expect the I fund to move higher from here.  A weekly close below 65 is a serious problem…

Bottom Line: Stay the course…  We are approaching significant upside resistance and possibly a major top.  However, another possibility exists as we discussed in great detail in Sunday updates as far back as 05 May 2019.  

The summer is half over; it’s easy to get complacent.  STAY FOCUSED!

Have a great week!

Jerry