Sunday Update: 25% C Fund, 25% S Fund, 50% G Fund.

It was another big week for the C and S funds!  The I fund is still lagging badly and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon.  This was an important week because all the major stock market indexes notched new, all time highs.  So now that we are so far extended past the 50 and 200 day moving averages (DMA), and at all time highs on the C and S funds, how do we know where prices might top out before rolling over?

One of the best tools to predict POSSIBLE support and resistance levels is Fibonacci Retracements.  Prices tend to revert back and extend beyond significant tops or bottoms in an identifiable way.  This gets very nerdy very fast.  You can learn more about Fibonacci here if interested.  Trust me when I tell you, the retracement levels work!

Short Term

In the short term, I’m looking for the C fund to top out between 2215 and 2225.  That could definitely happen this coming week.  How do I come up with that range as a likely short term top?  Take a look at the 6 month daily and 2 year weekly charts of the C fund below.  The next Fibonacci resistance level is 1.272% or 2223 on the daily and  2219 on the weekly.  We are very close to hitting this range and the market is really extended since the election.  My PLAN is to go to 100% G fund when the $SPX hits 2220.  This could happen within the next several days so please be looking for an Alert.

20161125-c-fund-6mo-daily-w-fib-ext

20161125-c-fund-6mo-daily-w-fib-ext

 

The S fund is currently at a Double Top and is also very extended, in the short term, since the election.  If it is able to push past the double top without a pull back, the next resistance level will be around 1224 (See below).

20161125-s-fund-2yr-weekly-w-fib-ext

 

The I fund is in its own world right now.  The next best opportunity to buy into the I fund will be when the price hits the lower channel line (possibly around 54.5 by mid-December).  Right now it’s in the middle of a trading range and headed lower…

20161125-i-fund-2yr-weekly

 

Long Term

Long term we are looking very good.  2017 has POTENTIAL to be a very big year for TSP stock funds!

c-fund-2002-thru-2017

Have a great week and please share this site with your friends and co-workers…

Jerry