Sunday Update: 25 March 2018

It was another very tough week for the TSP stock funds!  Just this week alone, the C fund was down almost 6%, the S fund 4.67%, and the I fund gave back 3.59%.  We are at a critical juncture as you’ll see below.  Before we get to the meat of the post, I want to throw a few things out there… is a TSP specific, financial education service.  If you’ve been following the weekly posts and understand the charts, you definitely have the tools to identify when to reallocate between the TSP funds.  Having said that, I offer a paid service where I tell you when I reallocate within my personal TSP account BEFORE I actually make the move.  If you are comfortable with the results you’re getting from your TSP allocation decisions, by all means, stay with what works!  If you want to know what I’m doing inside my personal TSP account then check out my service.  It’s $120 per year or $12 per month.  Consider it a super cheap insurance policy against big losses in your TSP!  Do the monthly plan and try it out.  Your retired self will thank you!…  Now back to the post!

I could write 50 pages on different possibilities based on mathematical and pattern projections.  The bottom line is, there are really only 2 possibilities and 2 trend lines to focus on over the next few weeks.  Either wave V was completed at the high in January 2018 or not.  We’re going to find out VERY soon…  Either the trend line from early 2016 holds and we go to new highs from here or, that trend line is violated and we progress down to the tend line that began at the last major low in 2009.  You can see it all in the chart below.  

Below is what I HOPE will happen BUT, I don’t operate on hope!.  I would like to see support here at the immediate trend line and a run to new highs by the summer.  That would fit nicely with my projections.  It’s possible as long as the price stays above the trend line but, it’s not looking good and the technical indicators really don’t look good…

Why doesn’t the chart above look good?  Why do I think we’re going lower from here?  The I fund led the initial fall in January and the I fund is still leading the way…  The 2.5 year chart of the I fund below shows a clear break in a pretty long term trend line, a failed attempt at getting back above that line, then new closing lows for the week.  The next support range for the I fund is shown in the chart below (based on Fibonacci from the 2016 low to the 2018 high).  

Market risk right now is VERY HIGH and the market is extremely volatile.  You should be watching the charts on a daily basis right now.  If you don’t have the time, interest, or stomach for this type of risk then you should be mostly in the G fund at this point.  We’ve made huge gains in 2016 and 2017.  Don’t give those gains back to the market…

Have a great week!







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