Sunday Update: 25 February 2018

Technical Analysis is a fantastic tool.  It is always best used in hindsight and often very effective to forecast.  Sometimes though, it can suck you into a black hole of possibilities…

The chart below is just the past month of the C fund at 15 minute increments.  Since we only get 2 moves per calendar month, looking at this short of a time frame isn’t really helpful in making TSP related decisions.  This time frame is best use for planning the next possible move(s).  In this case, the price came down in 5 distinct steps.  We would expect the recovery leg to play out in 3 steps.  This chart is 1 possibility among many if prices move higher next week.  If the S&P500 closes above 2750 early next week then we will likely test the prior high at 2875.  

It was a week of consolidation for the TSP stock funds along their respective 50 Day Moving Average lines.  There was a good amount of daily volatility (up and down price movement throughout the day).  By the end of the week, the C fund was up 0.55% versus last week.  This isn’t a statistically significant price move but, Friday’s big move higher with a close above it’s 50DMA, could indicate higher prices next week.  While the C fund did close above it’s 50DMA line, doing so on very low volume is not encouraging.  The S and I funds are still below their respective 50DMA lines.  We need to see all 3 stock funds break thru, and stay above, their 50DMA lines to confirm a new trend higher.  

This was a productive week but, we are not out of the woods yet.  Stay tuned…

Have a great week!

Jerry