Sunday Update: 24 July 2016 *ALERT*

Sunday Update and Alert: 40% C Fund / 40% S Fund / 20% G Fund Until Further Notice.

It looks like the current rally is going to stay with us for a while.  We are 50% into the stock funds now with one more Inter-fund transfer (IFT) available before the end of the month.  I wanted to see the market consolidate a bit before adding to the stock fund position.  Unfortunately, sometimes Mr. Market doesn’t give us that chance.  Hopefully Monday will be a down day but, either way, my new allocation will be 40% C Fund, 40% S Fund, and 20% G Fund.  When the current rally does correct back to the 50DMA, I will then put the remaining 20% into the stock funds.  I’m staying away from the I fund for now.  The chart of the I fund is no where near as strong as the C and S charts.

All this changes if the S&P500 closes below 2100 on a WEEKLY chart…

Short Term

In the short run the market is over bought, meaning that we should expect a pull back sometime soon.  However, this is a retirement account and not a day trading account.  Trying to catch the pull back isn’t worth the opportunity cost of staying out of the market.  So, don’t get spooked by short term losses.  Now is the time to be “buying the dips”.

Long Term

The long term chart of the C fund looks great.  We are currently at new, all time highs having just broken thru a year long consolidation (see the chart below).  The long term trend has changed and we are getting into the stock funds as close to the bottom as possible with the least amount of risk.

The long term chart of the S fund is also looking good.  The difference between the C and S fund over the past year is the pattern and depth of the consolidation.  At this point, both the C and S funds are in new up trends.  Once the S fund clears the 95 level on the chart below, the C fund trend change will be fully confirmed.

The long term chart of the I fund has potential but has not turned the corner.  The most recent low in June is higher that the previous low in February.  This is a very positive sign.  Unfortunately, the the 50WMA is still below the 200WMA with the 5oWMA still acting as resistance.  We need to see the I fund break up thru the 50WMA before reallocating into that fund.

Have a great week!  Please post questions to comments and SHARE…

Thanks,

Jerry