Sunday Update: 23 April 2017

Current Allocations: 50% C Fund, 50% G Fund.

The bad news is, I don’t have much to report.  I fully expected the market to move definitively, one way or the other, this week but it did not.  We stay at 50/50 until the market tells us otherwise.  The good news is, every week the market consolidates sideways, the odds increase that we go up from here…

Short Term

The short term chart of the S&P500 (C Fund) chart below is at a cross roads.  Having dropped below the 50DMA, the price chart is now experiencing resistance there.  On the positive side, we stayed above 2325 this week and the volume is increasing.  The indicators also look like they’re turning up.  It could go either way.  We need the price chart to get back above the 50DMA or close below 2320 to make any decisions.

Long Term

The long term charts below all look pretty similar.  This is the traditional norm.  The stock funds, traditionally and over time, tend to go up and down together.  That is the TSP management premise for being evenly distributed in all 3 stock funds when the market is trending up.

All 3 stock funds hit a low in early 2016, all have recovered nicely, and all are in about a 6 week consolidation at this point.  While the short term C fund chart above looks fairly bullish, the weekly charts of all 3 stock funds are showing continued weakness for the next few weeks.  We’re only about 5% (+/-) below the most recent high on all three stock funds and the consolidations have been mostly flat.  This is a good sign in the long run but, recent consolidations/corrections have been 10-12 weeks long.  We could still have several weeks of essentially sideways movement before we see a decisive move on the weekly chart.

We have 5 trading days left in April and we still have 2 moves left for the month.  Unfortunately, the charts do not give us a reason to make any reallocations at this point.  If we get a very significant break, one way or the other next Monday or Tuesday, then I may issue an alert but we’ll have to wait and see how things play out.

The most important thing to remember is that we are positioned very well to take advantage of whichever way the market breaks. If I had a crystal ball I’d make a move here but…

Have a great week!  Post questions to comments or on FaceBook, and please share!

Ps.  If you’re on Twitter, follow the site @GrowMyTSP



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