Sunday Update: 22 May 2016

Sunday Update: 50% C Fund / 50% G Fund Until Further Notice.

The S&P500 (C Fund) finished a bit lower for the week even after a decent pop on Friday.  Most significantly in the short term chart below, the C fund began the week below the 50DMA.  It got back above it on Monday but then stayed below for the remainder of the week.  If the 50DMA becomes resistance in the short term chart, we may start moving lower more quickly.

Long Term

The long term view continues to break down.  Anyone who does not closely monitor their TSP should be 100% G fund at this point.  Both the S and I funds continue to find resistance at the 50 Week Moving Average.  Both are in a downward sloping channel with Stochastic and MACD rolling over.

The long term C fund chart is the only posible bright spot right now.  The 2 year weekly is still finding support at the 50 Week Moving Average.  We need to see the price chart stay above the 50WMA as the Stochastic falls below 25 and then turns up. This is a lot to ask, especially since both the S and I fund charts are firmly below their 50WMA.

Things do not look good BUT, the market has not yet had a single negative day on big volume.  We may see this next week but, we could also see continued low volume consolidation and an eventual pop to the upside.  I’m just not yet confident in the next market direction so I will remain 50% C and 50% G until Mr. Market makes up his mind.

Have a great week!

Jerry