Sunday Update: 21 August 2016

Sunday Update: 40% C Fund / 40% S Fund / 20% I fund

The summer is coming to an end and we are still in consolidation mode.  The S&P500 (C Fund) has been in a pretty tight consolidation for the past 6 weeks.  I’d like to see the C fund break up thru 2200 on big volume to really get this rally going but, I’m prepared to see 2150 again before 2200.

The short term chart below looks pretty good.  Sometime soon the market will break one way or the other and we’ll adjust if necessary.  If the long term charts are any indicator, we could see a breakdown relatively soon… Stay tuned!

Long Term

The long term charts of the C and S funds are looking very top heavy.  The Slow Stochastic on both has topped out and is beginning to roll over.  The MACD on both are at over bought levels but are yet to roll over.  They could be foreshadowing a break down in September, always a notorious month.

The bright spot in the long term charts is the I fund.  Last week the I fund finally broke out thru its 50WMA.  This week the I fund held those gains which is a great sign.  Stochastic and MACD look great for continued gains in the I fund going forward.

We’ve got a couple more light volume weeks but, after Labor Day, things could get very interesting.  The upcoming election will be the primary focus but FED meetings, BREXIT fall out, terrorist threat levels, etc will all come into play in September and October.

Have a great week!

Jerry