Sunday Update: 21 April 2019

The TSP stock funds maintained a tight range during this shortened trading week.  U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.  For the week TSP funds traded mixed with the C fund down 0.08%, S fund down 1.1%, I fund up 0.35%, and F fund down 0.07%.

Long Term

The long term chart of the C fund was little changed this week.  As the price of the C fund is approaching the prior all-time high, volume is decreasing.  This is not a good sign.  We want to see the price consolidating while volume is decreasing.  Based on this set up, we could definitely see a drop in prices over the next couple of weeks.  We have gone straight up since the December 2018 low and we are currently sitting about 5% above the 50WMA.  IF you are very risk averse, now is a good time to exit the stock funds.  The short term charts are also flashing signs of risk…

Short Term

All 3 TSP stock funds are looking toppy on a daily basis.  The C fund is sitting less than 1% below its all-time high, 3% above its 50DMA and 5% above its 200DMA.  If the C fund rolls over next week, it likely comes down to one of these two moving average lines before finding support.  Importantly, the technical indicators look like they are ready to roll over and the S fund has already rolled over.  There are no guarantees but, I am expecting prices to fall next week…  

The S fund is concerning right now.  Having broke out of its consolidation from late February thru late March, the S fund should not be rolling over at this point.  It’s possible that the weakness we saw this week is just correcting the move since late March.  If that is the case, the S fund should move higher after finding support at its 50DMA or 200DMA.  A close below 1340 would mean that the S fund is going significantly lower…  The technical indicators do not look good for the S fund.  I’m looking for continued weakness with price decline to at least the 200DMA.

The I fund is holding up very well but is due for a quick pull back to the short term trend line.  If the trend line is violated, we should expect a decline to the 50DMA or 200DMA.  

Bottom line:  All 3 TSP stock funds look short term toppy.  Since the S fund often leads the market and has already begun rolling over, I’m expecting the C and I funds to follow next week.  IF you are risk averse, now is a reasonable time to take some money off the table.  I’m expecting a relatively short term correction here but, it could be significant in terms of a percentage drop.  More on this if it happens…

Have a great week!

Jerry