Sunday Update: 20 March 2016
Sunday Update: 100% G Fund Until Further Notice
In the short run, the market is approaching the top of our ranges. It’s been going virtually straight up for over a month and needs to take a breather. Its tough to know when we’ll get an opportunity to get back into the stock funds but, I am definitely not chasing the market at these levels. The G Fund is the place to be.
Let’s get a broader perspective with the 2 year daily and 10 year weekly charts below. The 2 year chart shows a little more upside potential in the channel but not much more. The Slow Stochastic is maxed out and the MACD shows clearly over-bought. The long term correction began last August when the 50DMA crossed the 200DMA. To resume a long term uptrend, we need to see the 50DMA get above, and stay above, the 200DMA.
The 10 year weekly chart gives us an idea of how important the moving averages really are. The bull market that began in 2009 generally rode the 50 week moving average until August 2015, about 6 and 1/2 years! Since last August, the market just can’t get above, and stay above, the 50 week. The chart looks to be in a long slow roll over. It will be interesting to see where we go from here in both the long and short terms.
The G fund is the place to be from a Technical Analysis perspective. Have a great week and please SHARE!
Please post questions to comments.