Sunday Update: 50% C Fund / 50% G Fund Until Further Notice
It’s a very tough market right now and frankly, I’m not optimistic. I expect prices to go much lower in 2016, but that does NOT mean that your TSP account has to go down with the market.
We got a big bounce out of a short consolidation on 31 January but the market immediately rolled over. It’s gone down for the past 2 weeks until Friday’s pop. The big negative is Thursday’s close below the 1850 level on the S&P500. Technically, that close puts us in a confirmed down trend. Fortunately, Friday’s pop may get us back up to the 50DMA before the selling resumes (as least that’s the hope!).
The way to make money in TSP is to be in the stock funds when the market trend is up and in the G or F fund when the market trend is down. Thursday’s close below 1850 puts us in a medium term down trend. Knowing that, the question is when to get back into 100% G fund? Based on Friday’s pop and the indicators pointing up, I am staying 50/50 C and G until the indicators top out. The goal is to recoup some of the loss from the past 2 weeks before the market rolls over again. This could absolutely happen this week so, stay tuned…