Sunday Update: 19 November 2017

It was a relatively uneventful week for the TSP funds, with one notable exception.  The I fund crossed a line that COULD be the beginning of a long term trend change.  More on that later in the post.  The C and I funds drifted lower for the week while the S fund finished slightly higher.  Technical indicators appear to be weakening across all 3 TSP stock funds.  

Short Term

The short term trend of the S&P500 (C Fund) is very much in question.  The most recent top in early November was followed by 5 declining days.  This clearly broke the very short term trend.  On Thursday the market recovered with Friday down a bit.  Buying the dips at the 50DMA has been very successful over the past year and this pattern could certainly continue.  When the indicators get to oversold levels as the price chart tests the 50DMA, this would be a great time to buy the C fund with the lowest possible risk (about 2550).  

(If you’re not already a Member and you want to know when I buy the C fund in my personal TSP account, sign up here.)  

Long Term

The short term trend above has already broke down from its highs, recovered a bit, and we are waiting to see which direction the trend gets confirmed.  The long term (weekly) trend is just beginning to roll over.  We are likely several weeks from a confirmed long term trend change but, watching the short term confirmation closely will give us advanced warning.  The last 2 weeks were negative for the C fund, volume was relatively high, and the indicators look to have topped and are rolling over.  This indicates more price weakness is coming down the pike.  

The S fund began topping and rolling over several weeks ago but recovered most of the losses this week.  This is definitely a show of strength for the S fund.  A close above 1325 would likely be the beginning of a new move up.

The I fund is really the story of the week. This week, the I fund finally showed some weakness by violating its long term up trend line.  This trend line has been in place for exactly 1 year.  Where the trend line acted as support for increasing prices over the past year, going forward the line is likely to act as a ceiling, making it difficult to make new highs.  One data point does NOT make a trend change but, this is one to watch…

The markets are shifting.  Things may get quite volatile over the next month.  If you’re not already a Member and want to know what I’m doing with my TSP account, hit this link.  Your retired self will thank you!

Have a great week..

Jerry