Sunday Update: 19 February 2017

Current Allocation: 34% C Fund, 33% S Fund, 33% I Fund.

It was another very strong week for the TSP stock funds as we march closer to our target area of roughly 2450 – 2500 on the S&P500 (C Fund).  The charts have actually firmed up some since last week so, while the current world situation makes me very nervous, the stock market as viewed thru the charts looks strong.  Having said that, we had a great move up since the November election.  If you are risk averse and/or planning to retire within the next 6 months, you should be watching the market closely and be ready to reduce stock exposure if necessary.

Short Term

We had a big move up this week as the chart below shows! 4 out of 5 days of solid gains and the indicators continue upward.  The MACD and Divergence still have room to move up before hitting the tops of last November and December.  We’re seeing a little bit of resistance at the 2350 level but, all in all, this is a very strong chart.

Long Term

The long term chart below is not looking as good.  We had a big weekly price move up on pretty average volume.  The indicators have turned around and are again moving up but, they are already in over bought territory compared to the highs in 2015 and 2016.  Things certainly look to be lining up for a top at or near our target of 2450-2500.

The S fund is pretty similar to the C fund.  It’s getting very close to the upper channel line and will likely have a hard time pushing thru.  The indicators turned back up this week but the MADC is over bough compared to the highs in 2015 and 2016.

The I fund shows no signs of letting up.  It still has room to move up on the price channel.  The indicators are moving up with room to go before hitting the tops from 2015.  The only problem is the volume.  Volume is the amount of shares that trade over a given time period.  The I fund volume has been below average for the past 2 weeks even as prices have continued to rise.  This is not ideal but not a show stopper for now.

It’s steady as she goes for the time being.  We are getting closer to the top so be alert…  Post questions to comments and please share with your friends and co-workers.

Have a great week.

Jerry