Sunday Update: 18 September 2016

Sunday Update: 100% G Fund.

It was another tough week for the market.  While the short term outlook improved this week, the long term outlook is degrading.  I will remain 100% G fund until a bottom pattern emerges on a weekly chart.

Short Term

The short term (6 month daily) chart below has improved.  The market found support at the 2120 level,rebounded a bit on Thursday, and held most of those gains on Friday.  The technical indicators show a potential short term bottom at this point.  This is where the 2 IFTs per month rule hurts us.  There is short term support at 2120.  We could buy at the current 2139 level and sell if the market rolled over below 2120.  In that case, our risk would only be 0.88%.  We only have 1 IFT remaining in September so the long term/weekly charts are much more important to make trading decisions.

Long Term

The long term charts of all 3 stock funds degraded this week.  While we may see a short term rally next week, the long term charts indicate continued decline in prices going forward.  The price charts are all rolling over on a weekly basis along with the technical indicators.

The 2 year weekly chart of the S&P500 (C fund) below comes from StockCharts.com and shows a different perspective on the same data than that provided by BigCharts.com.  The price chart is in “candle sticks”.  As you can see, a wick above the candle often indicates a top.  A wick below the candle often indicates a bottom.

Again, I will remain 100% G Fund until a bottom pattern has emerged and the weekly indicators have bottomed out and turned up.

Please post questions to comments and share.  Thanks.

Have a great week.

Jerry