But for the I fund, the TSP stock funds managed to stay positive for the week.  The C fund closed up just barely at 0.02%, the S fund was up 0.50%, and the I fund was down 0.58%.  We saw a negative reversal on Monday and a positive reversal on Friday without much price movement in between.  Typical summer-time market shenanigans…

Long Term

The long-term outlook looks great right now!  If you’re making TSP reallocation decisions from a long-term perspective, the chart below is exactly what you want to see.  Last week was a clear breakout from the triangle consolidation pattern.  This week didn’t add to the gains but didn’t hurt the chances for the new breakout either.  Market risk, on a weekly basis, is very low right now.    

The MACD/Stochastic and RSI had fallen pretty low during this consolidation.  All 3 indicators are positive now with lots of room to move higher. As long as they keep moving up, we have a good chance of seeing new all time highs on the C fund over the next couple of months.

*You can ignore the volume spike this week.  It came from Friday that was an options expiration day*

Short Term

The short-term picture is not as rosy as the long term…  We’re looking at a short term rolling top in the C fund with Stochastic headed lower. There is definitely resistance at the 2780 level and the prior high at 2875.  On the plus side, Friday’s reversal solidified some support at the 2775 level. 

The S fund continues to be the shining star.  The S continues to make new highs and will hopefully pull the C and I funds to new highs by the end of the year.   Having said that, the S fund has enjoyed a very strong move in the past month and is now almost 5% above its 50DMA.  That’s a pretty long way from major support and its technical indicators don’t look great. Definitely keep an eye on the S in the short term.

The I fund is having a rough time…  Down 0.58% for the week, including a gap down to the 200DMA and indicators rolling over. The I fund is not looking good.  If the I fund gives up its 200DMA, it will be hard for the C and S funds to continue higher…

It could go either way next week so, stay tuned!

Have a great week.

Jerry