Sunday Update: 14 January 2018

We’re 2 weeks into the new year and the TSP stock funds are Crushing It!  There’s really not that much to discuss in terms of moving money between the TSP funds.  The stock funds are the place to be – until they’re not…  I’m posting the 6 month daily charts of the C, S, and I funds at the bottom of the post for short term reference but I want to focus on comparing the three stock funds to each other.  

There was a time, many of us remember very well, when the I fund was CRUSHING the C and S funds.  The C fund doubled in price from the low in 2003 to the high in 2007, not bad.  Over that same time period the I fund was up 324%!  Lots of us got very rich, on paper, in the I fund until it all came down beginning in late 2007.  Since 2012 we’ve seen a clear leadership rotation with the S fund leading the way followed by the C and I lagging.  This long term comparison chart gives us a great perspective as to how the funds rotate leadership.  The important take away is that they all GENERALLY go up/down/sideways together…

Dialing in the timeline a bit gives us a different and more useful perspective.  We can see that from May 2015 until the bottom in February 2016, the 3 stock funds trended lower together.  Once the breakout happened, all 3 stock funds rose, with the C and S leading the I.   

The 2 year weekly chart below really drives the point home.  On a 2 year weekly basis, the chart below shows that all 3 of the stock funds really trend together.  Trying to pick which will out perform the other two in an overall market up trend is very tough.  The simplest way to maximize your TSP account is to be evenly distributed between the 3 stock funds for as much of the up trend as possible.  

All 3 of the TSP stock funds have confirmed their breakouts since the beginning of the year.  If you’re not in the stock funds now, you’re on the wrong side of the trade.  There’s no telling how long this rally will run but, there’s not an end in sight at this point…

Have a great weekend everybody!  

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  1. Hey Jerry! Do you think the possibility of a government will impact our TSP significant to a point where it would be safer to move funds to G today before noon? Just asking..

    1. Kim, it’s possible that the market could fall a bit. It isn’t something that would push me into the G Fund right now. Having said that, we’re up over 5% so far in 2018. Moving to the G fund to protect those gains during this uncertainty is a very reasonable decision.