It’s been a wild first week for the markets in 2020!  This time one week ago, the S&P futures were down to around 3150 as the markets were trying to process the strike on Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and potential backlash.  If you look on the daily chart a week ago Friday, the C fund closed just above its 10DMA and down for the week.  Conventional wisdom would expect the markets to continue lower after the Soleimani strike.  Instead, the market opened a bit down but finished Monday significantly higher.  The C fund found support at its 10DMA (Friday), bounced off it to the upside (Monday), and kept moving higher this week.  

We have not had a daily closing price below the 10DMA in the C fund since the end of November!  As long as that trend remains in place, the stock funds will continue to rise…  For the week, the C fund was up 0.94%, S fund up 0.48%, and I fund up 0.26%.  

While this week was ultimately very positive for the markets, Friday was a rough day.  Friday opened higher but reversed and finished below Thursday’s low.  This is a bearish engulfing pattern and is often seen at the top of a rally.  We’ll see next week…

Before we get into the TSP stock fund charts, let’s take a look at the F fund.  The F fund did very well as interest rates fell continuously in late 2018 and early 2019.  The F fund has been in a triangle consolidation for the past 4 months and may be ready to breakout.  A weekly close above 113.20 (the Sep 2019 high) would be a perfect buy point for the F fund.  If the stock funds roll over in early 2020, the F fund may be a more lucrative  alternative to the G fund…

The C Fund has had a great run since gapping up thru its 10DMA and 50DMA last October.  The price pattern has progressed in 5 waves, culminating with a bearish engulfing day on Friday.  I would expect at least a short term pause in the market here.  If we do get a roll over, I’m looking at POSSIBLY getting back into the stock funds around the 3100 level.  

The S Fund broke out to new highs this week but Friday’s move lower really hurt the prospects for higher prices.  Much like the C fund, the S fund is at the top of a 5 wave move higher since the October low.  If we got a close below 1500, I would look to get back into the S fund around 1450.

I Fund gapped up to new highs at the beginning of January but has since withdrawn to its consolidation zone.  It’s just barely holding above its 10DMA.  A close below 69, the lower end of the consolidation zone, would be a serious red flag. 

Bottom Line: The trend is your friend, and the trend is still up (FOR NOW).   Watch for a close below the 10DMA on the C fund.  That will be the first indication of a potential trend change.

Have a great week!

Jerry