Current Allocations: 34% C Fund, 33% S Fund, 33% I Fund.
It was a strong week for all 3 TSP stock funds. We’re looking really good in the short term but the long term is getting very toppy… Both the long and short term C fund charts are pointing to a top in the range of 2450-2500 or 6% – 8% higher. We are getting dangerously close to a top. Whether it is THE top remains to be seen but, if you are risk averse, you might consider decreasing your exposure to the stock funds somewhat.
We saw a big price move up on Thursday with a close above 2300, followed by a another big move on Friday. With the MACD and Stochastic turning positive, the short term chart looks really good. AB=CD is on track to hit the target. Go back to the 29 January update and compare the short term C fund chart to the chart below.
While the short term chart is looking really good, the long term charts are running out of steam. When the price moves up over time as the volume (number of shares being traded) moves down, that means fewer people are buying into the rally and a top is coming. If the price chart continues to rise toward 2500 and volume continues to decrease week-over-week then I’ll be looking very closely at getting out at 2500. If volume picks up, we’ll still be in the game…
The top is coming. We’re not there yet but, we’re getting close. Please post questions to comments and share with your friends and co-workers.
Have a great week!