Sunday Update: 11 June 2017

Current Allocation: 50%C Fund, 50% G Fund

It was not a very exciting week for the TSP stock funds given the build up toward Former FBI Director Comey’s testimony before Congress on Thursday.  There was actually very little movement for the week until Friday’s collapse of the Tech Sector.  All our tech favorites got a hair cut including Face Book (-3.3%), Amazon (-3.1%), Netflix (-4.73), and Google (-3.41%).  Tech has been a very big part of the rise in price of the S&P500 this year.  If tech continues down, the S&P will soon follow…  Just another reason to be cautious at 50C/50G.

Short Term   

On Friday, the S&P500 (C fund) pushed up to an intra-day high of over 2440, but also an intra-day low of 2415.  That intra-day low pulled us all the way back below the follow thru day on 1 June, before recovering most of the losses for the day.  Technically this is not a good sign.  While we did get a breakout above the 2400 level, it has not followed thru well at all.  With the MACD and Stochastic looking to roll over and the RSI elevated, caution is the name of the game.  

Long Term

The long term outlook didn’t change much this week.  There is still some room for price increase on the C fund weekly chart, but not much.  We are certainly in the later stages of this rally that began back in early 2016.

The S fund chart still looks the best in terms of potential upside over the next several weeks.  We had a decent consolidation from 1225 in March to 1225 during the last week of May.  Unfortunately, like the C fund, the S fund breakout has been less than impressive.  

The I fund is crushing it with a 22% advance since the election!  The I fund has gone almost straight up but now, the MACD/Stochastic are very elevated and the RSI looks to be past its peak and headed down.  It’s time for an imminent correction in the I fund…  When the MACD lines cross, I’d be all out of the I!

Have a great week and please post questions to comments!

Jerry