Sunday Update: 10 June 2018

It was quite a volatile week if you watched the market fluctuations throughout the day.  The summer can be a tough time for financial news but, if you know your lines in the sand, the noise in between won’t bother you…  For the week, the C fund was up 1.62%, the S fund was up 1.89%, and the I fund was up 0.59%.

Long Term

The weekly charts help us see the big picture and are best for making TSP reallocation decisions.  It doesn’t get much better than the weekly chart of the S&P500 (C Fund) below.  Beginning at the Jan 2018 top, we see a corrective triangle pattern thru April that was supported by the 2 year trend line.  The first week of May was the very beginning of a new move higher with last week confirming this move.  The MACD/Stochastic both turned positive on a weekly basis and the RSI has lots of room to move higher before becoming over-bought.  Volume was bigger than the last few weeks but, still not what we would like to see at the beginning of a serious move.

THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES.  IF this pattern holds then the market moves higher from here.  Patterns evolve so, stay alert!  My big picture line in the sand now is the 2 year trend line.  A weekly close below that line would be a problem.  

Short Term

In the short term, expect volatility to continue!  We had a big move off of the 200DMA in early May followed by a 2 week consolidation.  The gap up on 4 June confirmed this short term move higher.  The dotted line shows how the price chart and technical indicators all turned up on the same day.  

The next area to watch is 2800.  If we can get thru 2800-2825 without rolling over then we are likely to hit the prior high at 2875.  Having said that, there lots of other possibilities; including the chance of a serious roll over at 2800ish…  

The S fund is on fire!  This is a great pattern and hopefully the S fund will lead the other 2 TSP stock funds higher.  The S fund broke out of its triangle consolidation pattern in early May, consolidated a bit and then ran higher.  This was similar to the C fund however, the S fund has managed to run to new All Time highs!  We have a new short term trend line for the S fund.  As long as we stay above this line, the S fund is good to go in the short run.

The I fund pattern has evolved into a horizontal consolidation.  This is what will happen with the C fund if we roll over at the 2800 level.  The last low for the I fund was 68.5 which was above the lower channel/support line.  This is a good sign.  We need to see a close above the 72 level to break out of this consolidation pattern.

It was another productive week for the TSP stock funds but there are still lots of question marks.  If only the C and I charts could look like the S fund chart!  There’s a fight going on between the Bulls (pulling the market higher) and the Bears (pulling the market lower).  It’s a “Tug-Of-War” and the winner is TBD… Stay tuned for an exciting summer!




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