Sunday Update: 02 October 2016

Sunday Update: 100% G Fund

We made it thru September, and the first Presidential debate, without a significant move in the market!  For the month of September, all the stock funds finished marginally below where they were at the end of August.  For the week, none of the stock funds got higher than last week’s high.  Given the market risk that currently exists, finishing flat for the month with no big price swings is a positive sign.  We seem to be consolidating as opposed to rolling over.  If we can get thru the election without any drastic moves to the downside, we MAY see a big move up into 2017.  That’s a big IF…

I posted the Very Long Term chart below back on 17 July.  This count is definitely still in play.  If we can pop out of the current consolidation we could see some big gains over the next 6 months.  HOWEVER, I will remain in the G fund until I see the move begin to take shape…

Short Term

While we didn’t roll over in September, we did see a significant gap down thru the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA).  The C fund has been fighting to regain the 50DMA all month but has not been successful.  There is a significant amount of resistance between 2150 and 2190.  A gap up thru the 50DMA and a strong close above 2200 would be great to see in October!

Long Term

The 2 year weekly chart of the stock funds have not changed much since last week.  None of the funds had any days higher or lower than last week’s highs and lows.  It was truly a consolidation week for all 3 stock funds.  Unfortunately, this did very little to move the technical indicators.  Ideally we want to see the price chart consolidate while the technical indicators ease down into the over sold range.  This would give us an early indication of the next pop to the upside…

September was pretty much a non-event for the markets.  October has the potential to be much more exciting so, stay tuned.  This market could turn on a dime!

Have a great week!

Jerry