TSP Allocation Alert Analysis

After an Allocation Alert is posted we also do a deep dive analysis into what market conditions caused us to make the changes we did. Match the date of the original alert with the blog post below. The most current dated Alert is available to MEMBERS ONLY.

* Alert * : 21 April 2020

With 7 trading days remaining in the month, I thought long and hard about posting this Alert!  We have been talking about significant resistance at/near the 2900 level on the S&P500 (C fund) for the past several weeks.  As you can see in the chart below, the price...

* Alert * : 07 April 2020 (Final)

New Allocation: 70% G Fund, 30% C Fund I absolutely DID NOT expect to be writing this Alert.  Everything in me "believes" the market is ultimately going lower from here.  It may eventually roll over, test the lows, or make new lows but, what I "believe" does NOT...

* Alert * : 01 April 2020

New Allocation: 100% G Fund I hate to use one of our reallocations on the 1st day of the calendar month.  Having said that, the market drives trading decisions, NOT the TSP restrictions...  The C fund gapped down this morning, down almost 4.5% for the day, and closing...

* Alert * : 24 March 2020

New Allocation: 20% C Fund, 20% S Fund, 20% I Fund, 40% G Fund A TON of analysis has gone into this reallocation decision.  I'm keeping this Alert as short as possible while including all critical info for this decision, and what may come next...  First the rationale,...

* Alert * : 12 March 2020

New Allocation: 75% G Fund, 25% C Fund The stock market has met the definition of a Bear Market, a 20% drop from the most recent high.  Fear of the Coronavirus is rampant with travel being restricted, schools being closed, and the media hammering away.  Coronavirus is...

* Alert * : 21 February 2020

New Allocation: 67% G Fund, 33% F Fund. This was the 3rd reallocation in the month of February.  As a result, we can only increase our holdings in the G fund.  Since the F fund is doing very well, I left 33% in the F fund and reallocated my C and S holdings...

* Alert * : 18 February 2020

New Allocation: 34% C Fund, 33% S Fund, 33% F Fund. The I fund has lagged the C, S and F funds for some time.  With the expansion of the Coronavirus AND the gap below the 10DMA and 50DMA today, I am reallocating 33% from the I fund to the F fund. While the chart of...

* Alert * : 04 February 2020

New Allocation: 34% C Fund, 33% S Fund, 33% I Fund January was a volatile month in terms of price.  The C fund gained about 2.8% during the first 2 and 1/2 weeks, only to give it all back in the last week and a half of the month.  By contrast, the F fund had a very...

* Alert * : 27 January 2020

New Allocation: 100% F Fund On Friday, all 3 of the TSP stock funds closed below their respective 10DMA (Day Moving Average) line.  As you can see in the 1 year chart of the C fund below, each of the 3 significant corrections in 2019 (May, July, and September) began...

* ALERT * : 15 January 2020

This rally is over-extended by any measure.  The long and medium term chart pattern and wave count project an imminent top.  The technical indicators are all at extreme highs.  Even the Fear & Greed Index is at extremes.  There is NO "reason" for the market to...

* ALERT * : 31 December 2019

New Allocation: 100% G Fund The C fund closed Monday just above its 10DMA, following a reversal on Friday off of the 3250 high.  Ideally, the 5 wave pattern that began at the beginning of October will complete with 1 final push higher but it's not necessary.  The C...

* ALERT * : 12 December 2019

New Allocation: 34% C Fund, 33% S Fund, 33% I Fund The market is breaking out today following support at the 10DMA on the C fund and a strong breakout on the I fund.  The new floor is 3150 on the S&P500 (C Fund).  

* ALERT *: 03 December 2019

New Allocation: 100% G Fund The S&P500 (C fund) closed below the 10 Day Moving Average (DMA) yesterday for the first time since the October breakout.  The market hit resistance at the upper channel line and has reversed.  Market risk is now much higher than it was...

* ALERT * : 17 November 2019

New Allocation: 34% C Fund, 33% S Fund, 33% I Fund Last Thursday 14 November, I reallocated to 100% G fund.  Anyone who made that reallocation did not enjoy the gains made by the market on Friday.  Call that the price of buying down risk.  Our goal is NOT to "time the...

* ALERT * : 14 November 2019

New Allocation: 100% G Fund I have 3 major reasons for reallocating to the G fund at this point.  The first is procedural, the second is short term/tactical, and the third is strategic.  If you have questions, please comment or email. First We began the month of...

* ALERT * : 31 October 2019

New Allocation: 33% C Fund, 33% S Fund, 34% I Fund. On 11 October I reallocated from 100% G fund to 60% stock funds, 40% G fund.  This move reflected the change in market risk at the time.  On 11 October, as described in the ALERT, the C fund gapped up thru it's...

* ALERT * : 11 October 2019 (Final)

Friday was a very strong move to the upside for all 3 TSP stock funds.  We are not out of the woods yet but, the risk/reward ratio has turned positive in the short run.  By moving to 60% stock funds and 40% G fund, we will get the majority of the gains as the market...

* ALERT * : 02 August 2019 (Final)

New Allocation: 100% G Fund It was a very rough week for the TSP stock funds.  In fact, it was the largest weekly loss year to date.  What generated this ALERT was not the size of the weekly loss, it was how the patterns were affected.  We're going to get into the...

* ALERT *: 08 July 2019

New Allocation: 40% S Fund, 40% I Fund As we discussed in this weekend's Sunday Update, there is a SHORT TERM opportunity to see some gains in the S and I funds.  I don't expect to be in the stock funds for too long but, the charts will ultimately be the guide... The...

* ALERT * : 25 June 2019

New Allocation: 100% G Fund The markets have broken down significantly over the past 3 day, beginning with Friday's reversal and losses on Monday and Tuesday.  Importantly, the tech focused indexes like the NASDAQ and the S Fund have taken the brunt of the decline....

* ALERT * : 13 June 2019

New Allocation: 75% C Fund, 25% G Fund As I said in the last ALERT (read it here), I would consider increasing my position in the C fund with a strong close above the 50DMA.  Prices have consolidated along this level for the past 4 days.  I expect prices to go higher...

* Alert * : 05 June 2019

New Allocation: 30% C Fund, 70% G Fund The C fund was up 2.14% on Tuesday.  After 4 consecutive weeks of declining prices the market was due for a rally.  A 2+% up day is significant and needs to be respected in its own right but, the reason I'm easing back into the C...

* Alert * : 07 May 2019

New Allocation: 100% G Fund It was a very rough weekend for the Asia market.  The futures tanked as soon as the President tweeted an increase in tariff's on Chinese goods from 10% to 25%.  All of the major indexes gapped down about 2% at the open on Monday and then...

* ALERT *: 21 March 2019 (Final Full Alert)

New Allocation: 25%C Fund, 25%S Fund, 25%I Fund, 25% F Fund This ALERT is based on several factors that I will lay out in the charts below.  The spark that finally got me to reallocate into the stock funds was the FED Chairman's remarks on Wednesday afternoon.  The...

* ALERT *: 06 March 2018

New Allocation: 100% G Fund This SHOULD be the beginning of a significant correction.  How significant is really the big question.  Best case scenario is a 3 step decline down to the 50DMA (blue line).  If we get support at the 50DMA, things will be looking great...

* ALERT *: 17 February 2019

New Allocation: 50% C Fund, 50% G Fund The market has exploded off the December low and is now back above it's 50WMA.  This is a critical technical level.  If the C fund can stay above it, the line will turn positive and we will soon be testing the October highs!...

* ALERT *: 31 December 2018

New Allocation: 100% G Fund After writing this weekends Sunday Update I went back and took a very close look at the long, medium and short term charts with Fibonacci retracement levels and Elliott Wave count.  I will explain utilizing the charts below but, the bottom...

* ALERT *: 25 December 2018

New Allocation: 50% C Fund, 50% G Fund I'm going to do something here that is counter to my normal investing philosophy but, in light of current market conditions, I'm convinced the risk is in my favor.  Since the high in mid-September, the S&P500 (C fund) is down...

* ALERT * : 13 November 2018

New Allocation: 100% G Fund. It was a crushing day for the TSP stock funds with the C and S funds off just under 2%, and the I fund down 1.64%.  The market has not recovered well from the October pounding, and the current set up does not look good.  I am moving to...

* ALERT * : 02 November 2018

New Allocation: 50% C Fund, 50% G Fund This ALERT is going to be very specific as to why I completed a reallocation this morning.  A more comprehensive look at all the stock funds will come out this weekend in the Sunday Update. This Monday the S&P500 (C Fund) put...

Market Update: 16 October 2018

We had a big move up today on all 3 TSP stock funds.  Hopefully the rally continues and we move higher throughout the week.  Having said that, technical analysis does not operate on "Hope".  Here's the bottom line:  The crash we saw over the past 2 weeks is...

* Market Update * : 10 October 2018

Wow!  It's been a heck of an October for the market and we're not even 2 weeks into it...  This post is an update to give everyone an understanding of where we are and my strategy for going forward.  I have to reiterate, this post is not intended as personal advice...