TSP Allocation Alert Analysis

After an Allocation Alert is posted we also do a deep dive analysis into what market conditions caused us to make the changes we did. Match the date of the original alert with the blog post below. The most current dated Alert is available to MEMBERS ONLY.

* Alert * : 05 March 2021

To say volatility continued this week is an Understatement! We'll get into all of that in the Weekly Update Show and the Weekly Update Newsletter. For this post, let's focus on the mechanics of what generated today's Alert. Before we get into that, I need to take a...

* Alert * : 26 February 2021

It's been an UGLY week for the TSP stock funds but an even worse week for the F fund. The basis for the collapse in the F fund is really the problem here. Most of the public is fixated on the inevitable passing of another $1.9Trillion stimulus package AND the Federal...

Market Update: 23 February 2021

It was a wild day for the TSP stock funds! These are the days when understanding the big picture really matters.... As we explained in the Weekly Update Show on Sunday, the market is in the 5th and final leg of the rally that began back in 2009. 5th legs tend to be...

* Alert * : 04 February 2021

We just had a VERY brief correction down to the 50DMA. With respect to the S&P500 (C Fund), the entire correction only lasted 4 days from the all-time high in January. During that time, the price of the C fund collapsed down through the 10DMA and found support at...

* Alert * : 27 January 2021

It was an ugly day for the TSP stock funds. By the close, if you were evenly distributed between the 3 TSP stock funds, your account will be lower by 2.49%. That's a big hit to take and many people believe it's a bad idea to sell on a down day. Here's the thing....

* Alert * : 06 January 2021

I was having flashbacks to the 2016 election this morning! Election night 2016, the futures market was down 1,000 points after President Trump won. By the open the next morning, the market had swung to 1,000 to the plus side. The reason? Your guess is as good as...

* Alert * : 28 December 2020

The President ultimately signed the CoVid relief and Government spending bill on Sunday night. This action made the futures market pop on Monday morning, resulting in a gap up at the open of regular trading. It looks like the Santa Clause Rally is in full swing... My...

* Alert * : 15 December 2020

This is an extremely technical alert, taking into account layers of technical analysis AND the TSP reallocation rules. If you've been reading the Weekly Update Newsletters and following the Weekly Update Show, you know that we have been watching the S&P500 (C...

* Alert * : 04 November 2020

Talk on the street WAS that a Biden win would be bad for stocks and a Trump win would be good for stocks . The market exploded higher today at the open, even as votes continue to be counted, and the eventual winner of the Presidency is still up in the air. With so...

* Alert * : 28 October 2020

The market finally threw in the towel this morning, with a 2% gap down at the open, and it continued down from there. What was an orderly consolidation, following a strong move off the September low, changed on today's gap down. Please take a minute to read the...

Mid-week Update: 27 October 2020

The C fund has closed below the 50DMA for the past 2 consecutive days. Why have we not seen an Alert?? I know that's a question on the minds of many, and it's a fair question. This post will explain where I stand, based on my read of the charts with applied technical...

* Alert * : 01 October 2020

Based on history (back to 2016) we expected the S&P500 (C Fund) to come down in price to its 200DMA (Day Moving Average).  We discussed this in detail both in the Weekly Update Show and the Weekly Update post this past weekend.  We still may see prices that low at...

* Alert * : 21 September 2020

The C fund has been consolidating for the past 2 weeks.  After finding support at the 50DMA, prices could not get back above the 10DMA.  On Friday, the C fund closed below its 50DMA for the first time since closing above it back in April.  This does NOT...

* Alert * : 30 August 2020

IF you have not read this week's Weekly Update, please read that first.  It lays out the current general market conditions and does a deeper dive into the Fear & Greed Index.  The market had a huge week and we have made some significant gains since the...

* Alert * : 12 August 2020 (Final)

New Allocation: 30% C Fund, 30% S Fund, 40% I Fund There is a lot to discuss with respect to both this Alert and the previous Alert on 30 July.  Please read the previous Alert first to get perspective, then read this one.  This is a longer Alert than usual.  Please...

* Alert * : 30 July 2020 (Final)

New Allocations: 50% F Fund, 50% G Fund All 3 TSP stock funds gapped down at the open.  The C fund ran down to just above 3200 before recovering most of the day's losses.  As we've discussed for the past several weeks, the 3200 level is very significant.  Because the...

*Alert * : 02 July 2020

New Allocations: 34% C Fund, 33% S Fund, 33% I Fund The S&P500 (C Fund) gapped up this morning at the open.  This gap up was a clear breakout from the triangle pattern formed by the lower, upward sloping trend line and the upper, downward sloping trend line.  From...

* Alert * : 05 June 2020

New Allocations: 10% C Fund, 10% S Fund, 10% I Fund, 70% G Fund The market has had an amazing run since bottoming on 23 March.  The C fund is within striking distance of its February top, while the NASDAQ Composite Index ($COMP) ended the week at a new All Time High! ...

* Alert * : 27 May 2020

New Allocations: 25% C Fund, 25% S Fund, 25% I Fund, 25% F Fund Last night the European Union (EU)  jumped into bed with the Federal Reserve Bank (FED), along with Japan, adding to its stimulus package.  The FED has been pumping COVID stimulus money into the economy...

* Alert * : 20 May 2020

New Allocation: 25% C Fund, 25% S Fund, 25% F Fund, 25% G Fund The C Fund gapped up through its 10 Day Moving Average (DMA) on Monday, on Big Volume.  It's possible that this move was the beginning of a major leg higher.  We need to let the Elliott Wave Pattern play...

* Alert * : 21 April 2020

With 7 trading days remaining in the month, I thought long and hard about posting this Alert!  We have been talking about significant resistance at/near the 2900 level on the S&P500 (C fund) for the past several weeks.  As you can see in the chart below, the price...

* Alert * : 07 April 2020 (Final)

New Allocation: 70% G Fund, 30% C Fund I absolutely DID NOT expect to be writing this Alert.  Everything in me "believes" the market is ultimately going lower from here.  It may eventually roll over, test the lows, or make new lows but, what I "believe" does NOT...

* Alert * : 01 April 2020

New Allocation: 100% G Fund I hate to use one of our reallocations on the 1st day of the calendar month.  Having said that, the market drives trading decisions, NOT the TSP restrictions...  The C fund gapped down this morning, down almost 4.5% for the day, and closing...

* Alert * : 24 March 2020

New Allocation: 20% C Fund, 20% S Fund, 20% I Fund, 40% G Fund A TON of analysis has gone into this reallocation decision.  I'm keeping this Alert as short as possible while including all critical info for this decision, and what may come next...  First the rationale,...

* Alert * : 12 March 2020

New Allocation: 75% G Fund, 25% C Fund The stock market has met the definition of a Bear Market, a 20% drop from the most recent high.  Fear of the Coronavirus is rampant with travel being restricted, schools being closed, and the media hammering away.  Coronavirus is...

* Alert * : 21 February 2020

New Allocation: 67% G Fund, 33% F Fund. This was the 3rd reallocation in the month of February.  As a result, we can only increase our holdings in the G fund.  Since the F fund is doing very well, I left 33% in the F fund and reallocated my C and S holdings...

* Alert * : 18 February 2020

New Allocation: 34% C Fund, 33% S Fund, 33% F Fund. The I fund has lagged the C, S and F funds for some time.  With the expansion of the Coronavirus AND the gap below the 10DMA and 50DMA today, I am reallocating 33% from the I fund to the F fund. While the chart of...

* Alert * : 04 February 2020

New Allocation: 34% C Fund, 33% S Fund, 33% I Fund January was a volatile month in terms of price.  The C fund gained about 2.8% during the first 2 and 1/2 weeks, only to give it all back in the last week and a half of the month.  By contrast, the F fund had a very...

* Alert * : 27 January 2020

New Allocation: 100% F Fund On Friday, all 3 of the TSP stock funds closed below their respective 10DMA (Day Moving Average) line.  As you can see in the 1 year chart of the C fund below, each of the 3 significant corrections in 2019 (May, July, and September) began...

* ALERT * : 15 January 2020

This rally is over-extended by any measure.  The long and medium term chart pattern and wave count project an imminent top.  The technical indicators are all at extreme highs.  Even the Fear & Greed Index is at extremes.  There is NO "reason" for the market to...

* ALERT * : 31 December 2019

New Allocation: 100% G Fund The C fund closed Monday just above its 10DMA, following a reversal on Friday off of the 3250 high.  Ideally, the 5 wave pattern that began at the beginning of October will complete with 1 final push higher but it's not necessary.  The C...

* ALERT * : 12 December 2019

New Allocation: 34% C Fund, 33% S Fund, 33% I Fund The market is breaking out today following support at the 10DMA on the C fund and a strong breakout on the I fund.  The new floor is 3150 on the S&P500 (C Fund).