TSP Allocation Alert Analysis

After an Allocation Alert is posted we also do a deep dive analysis into what market conditions caused us to make the changes we did. Match the date of the original alert with the blog post below. The most current dated Alert is available to MEMBERS ONLY.

* Alert Analysis * : 22 August 2022

https://vimeo.com/741617929/cee3b77e80 This weekend's Newsletter lays out the 2 most likely scenarios for the next correction. In either of those scenarios, there is very little upside potential in the near term. If you have not read this weekend's Newsletter, please...

* Alert Analysis * : 11 August 2022

https://vimeo.com/738493089/537927575f Yesterday's inflation reading spurred a monster rally in stocks. The idea is that, since inflation has seemingly peaked, the FED may not have to continue its tightening cycle as long as previously expected. The other side of this...

* Alert Analysis * : 05 August 2022

https://vimeo.com/737135641/67cba77623 The monthly jobs report was released at 8:30 on Friday morning. The economy added 528,000 new jobs in July; twice the number expected! The unemployment rate also ticked down from 3.6% to 3.5%. This at a time when all the media is...

* Alert Analysis * : 20 July 2022

https://vimeo.com/731697585/bf510fda53 All 3 TSP stock funds hit my buy triggers at Tuesday's close. This Alert Analysis is relatively brief, however, it's actually a very complicated Alert that will be fully flushed out in the Newsletter this weekend. This is my...

* Alert Analysis * : 11 July 2022

https://vimeo.com/728874502/6dabcd0495 The F fund gapped up at the open this morning, having found support at its 20DMA and RSI 50 line. Here's the quote from the F fund section of the Newsletter this past weekend. "As we explained last week, a buy signal triggered on...

* Alert Analysis * : 22 April 2022

https://vimeo.com/702122758 The market gapped up on the open yesterday. It looked like a great start to the day! Unfortunately, the market then rolled over, giving us a huge reversal engulfing candle. A very bearish sign... Today's gap down below the prior low of 4375...

* Alert Analysis * : 20 April 2022

https://vimeo.com/701385396 The chart below is a 5 month, hourly chart of the C fund. Price broke up through the short term down trend line yesterday. This gives us a great opportunity to dip a toe back into the stock funds with limited downside risk. You definitely...

* Alert Analysis * : 06 April 2022

https://vimeo.com/696677544/bee47cf6e3 The market found a near term bottom in early March. Since then we saw an impressive relief rally, recovering about 2/3 of the losses on the C fund. The relief rally began to pause in late March as price consolidated to the 10DMA...

* Alert Analysis * : 21 March 2022

https://vimeo.com/690303639/9d78542d42 On Monday last week, the market put in the lowest closing price of the current correction. This was followed by 4 days of explosive price movement to the upside. The stock market is in rally mode. Investors Business Daily (IBD)...

* Alert Analysis * : 10 March 2022

https://vimeo.com/686766569/e4acd8ddeb Both the stock market and the bond market opened the day lower today with the F fund gapping down through our identified support level of 109. If you don't understand why we reallocated to 50% F fund on 28 February, please go...

* Alert Analysis * : 28 February 2022

https://vimeo.com/682937439/6f3568a897 The last trading day of February gave us an opportunity to take advantage of a reallocation while preserving 2 IFTs for the month of March. We've been discussing the F fund as a possible alternative to the G fund during this Bear...

* Alert Analysis * : 24 January 2022

https://vimeo.com/669477215/21c4461862 The chart below says it all! The last reallocation, 20 January, was predicated on anticipated support at the 200DMA. Today that level clearly failed. The 200DMA is my final line in the sand. Below is the 2 year 6 month, daily...

* Alert Analysis * : 20 January 2022

https://vimeo.com/668418520/ec1f1348d0 Here's where the TSP rules can either help you or hurt you! I began writing this Alert Analysis at 11AM with price charts as they were at the time the Alert posted. As of the close today, things are much different; in our favor!...

*Alert Analysis* : 06 January 2022

https://vimeo.com/662806627/b27348078c The market was holding up pretty well today until the FED minutes were made public at 2PM. The FED indicated that they planned to raise interest rates faster and more frequently in 2022 than was previously expected. This put the...

* Alert Analysis * : 07 December 2021

https://vimeo.com/654317965 It was an explosive day for all 3 TSP stock funds! The market did NOT want to see the S&P500 get below that 4500 level... All three TSP stock funds gained today with the C fund up 2.07%, S fund up 2.55%, and the I fund up 2.11%. It's...

* Alert Analysis * : 26 November 2021

https://vimeo.com/650461429/0b062cf3ae This Alert Analysis should come as no surprise to anyone who has been following us for some time. This is how we ended the Weekly Update Newsletter last Sunday: "I DO NOT have a crystal ball! And, PRICE is the only thing that...

* Alert Analysis * : 04 November 2021

If you are in sync with our Current Allocation, you are 100% invested in the C fund. The C fund continues to make gains, almost on a daily basis! Having said that, yesterday the S fund FINALLY broke out of its long term sideways consolidation pattern. The overall...

* Alert Analysis * : 15 October 2021

https://vimeo.com/632972841/06734cbd62 There is a lot to discuss regarding the current market. We will get into the Elliott Wave count and the Bull vs. Bear arguments in the TSP Weekly Update Show this weekend. In this Alert, we're going to focus on the specific...

* Alert Analysis * : 07 October 2021

https://vimeo.com/625615705/a3227a778c The C fund gapped up very strongly on the open this morning and continued higher as of the time of this writing. I'm not convinced that the 4 leg is complete for reasons that I will explain on the last chart below. Having said...

* Alert Analysis * : 28 September 2021

https://vimeo.com/617422789 It was a rough start to the week but not unexpected as I explained in yesterday's TSP Update. Tonight's Alert is really an extension of the Alert we posted on 13 September. To put today's price action in context, I would highly encourage...

* Alert Analysis * : 13 September 2021

https://vimeo.com/603197610/94201e763f It was a rough week for the TSP stock funds. Honestly, things were not looking that bad until late afternoon on Friday. The question is, are we seeing the beginning of a significant correction or just expected seasonal...

* Alert Analysis * : 23 August 2021

https://vimeo.com/591100132/a85fe8dd91 This Alert should come as no surprise given last Monday's Alert explanation. Most importantly, all 3 TSP stock funds gapped up at the open this morning and are currently above either their 50DMA or 10DMA. We did very well last...

* Alert Analysis * : 16 August 2021

https://vimeo.com/587936017/3dcf55276e The futures market opened down this morning and regular trading continued the trend. The problem was not so much the C fund, or even the I fund. The problem was a very disappointing breakdown on the S fund intra-day chart. We...

*Alert Analysis* : 21 July 2021

We managed to avoid a good bit of volatility in the TSP stock funds since the 8 July ALERT. We also made some decent gains in the F fund over the past few weeks. Having said that, the big gains are made in the stock funds when the overall market is trending up. With...

* Alert Analysis * : 08 July 2021

We had a great run since the last Alert that posted on 24 June. It's a good idea to look at the charts from the last Alert and compare with the charts in this Alert. We want to be on the "Right" side of the market. With the stock funds rolling over and the F fund...

* Alert Analysis * : 24 June 2021

Those who have been following GrowMyTSP.com for some time should not be surprised by today's Alert. If you're new to the site, welcome aboard! I'll go into plenty of detail so you'll understand the rationale, the risk involved, and what we need to see for the next...

* Alert Analysis * : 26 May 2021

The market has clawed its way back to just about flat since our last Alert on 10 May. Since that time, the C fund found support at its 50DMA and has made incremental moves higher. The C fund currently sits just under 1% below its all-time high. The I fund found...

Market Update 11 May 2021

No ALERT today, however you need to watch this Market Update video to get a sense of what's going on in the market as of this morning. This video was also posted in the Member's Only Facebook Group. https://vimeo.com/547975607/0f78084947

* Alert Analysis * : 10 May 2021

The market gave us quite the head-fake last week! On Tuesday, the C fund gapped down and tested the mid-April lows before reversing. It closed below its 10DMA for the first time since last March. This, along with a very rough day for the S fund, generated last week's...

* Alert * : 04 May 2021

In the Weekly Update Newsletter this past weekend, we discussed the sell triggers for both the C and S funds. Both of those triggers were met today. The C fund opened below its 10DMA, and tested the prior lows of mid-April, before reversing to close down 0.67%. With...

* Alert * : 01 April 2021

Today may have been April Fool's Day but, it was no joke on Wall Street! Since hitting a low in early March, the TSP stock funds have been trying to find their footing. As of today we have a new All-Time High for the C fund, a strong move and close above the 10DMA for...

* Alert * : 23 March 2021

It was a tough day for all 3 TSP stock funds. The F fund, on the other hand, has hit A BOTTOM. This Alert will focus primarily on the S fund with charts of several time frames. We will also look at the C fund and F fund. It's going to be a long post so, grab a cup of...

* Alert * : 11 March 2021

Market leadership has been rotating for the past several months. This became clearly evident in mid-February when the Nasdaq Composite Index (Tech) rolled over from an all-time high. As the Nasdaq declined and made a clear break in its long term up-trend, the Dow...