*ALERT*: 26 October 2017

New Allocation: 50%C Fund, 50% G Fund

Folks, this is a very tough market.  I moved to 100% F fund on the gap up off the most recent low.  As you can see in the chart below, the last 2 times the F fund gapped up off a low it went on to significant new highs.  This time the market went against me.  Today’s close, below 109.10 and the prior low, is a clear indication to get out of the F fund. See the chart below.

I have no problem selling the F fund with a 1% loss as the risk was fixed and known.  What to do next is a little more tricky.  The stock funds are pausing but they have not rolled over in a meaning full way YET.  The risk here is VERY HIGH.  If you are risk averse, I would go to 100% G fund to ensure no additional losses.  If you watch the market closely then stepping back into the C fund MIGHT be a good idea.  

It looks like we may be in the beginning stages of a “Melt UP”.  This is a last ditch effort to pull everyone into the final thrust higher.  Given the very positive earnings reports that came out tonight for Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Twitter, this could drive the melt up significantly higher.  The C fund chart below shows the likely short term Elliott Wave count.  I will be watching this very closely and am only willing to put 50% of my funds at risk.  Because I have 1 reallocation left for the month of October, I will be moving to 50%C and 50%G tomorrow.  If it all rolls over, I can always move back to the G fund.

Again, the risk is HIGH.  A close on the C fund below 2540 would be a problem.  If the market drops drastically tomorrow morning, I will be moving to 100% G fund though I don’t expect that will happen…  Get your move in by noon EST tomorrow to get tomorrow’s closing price.

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    1. It’s going to get interesting for the next few months! Sitting it out on the sidelines of the G fund is not a bad idea…

  1. Hey Jerry,
    Based on this mornings numbers did your approach remain the same to try 50% in C and 50% in G?

    Please provide update when you get a chance.


  2. Thank you Jerry. I pay to get your opinion. Then it is my responsibility to choose my course. This time I chose to wait it out and did not move back to G fund when you recommended. I decided to wait a little more. I am a happy camper and am still 100% C fund. I wrote this to say, Never worry about what anyone else is going to do. You just promised to let us know what you are doing with your personal money and that your goal was not to lose money. I have lost A LOT of money and did not move it back to the C fund as it went up because of that. Part of that was my lack of watching the market and my tsp. Hopefully I have learned.

    1. Thanks Susan! It’s tough sitting in the G when the market is going up. I have learned over time not to chase the market. It’s a marathon and you can’t always be on the right side. Thanks for your support!