*Alert*: 21 February 2018

New Allocation: 75% G Fund, 25% C Fund

This will be the last reallocation for the month of February.  We have 5 trading days left in the month and the market seems to be rolling over at the 50DMA.  The risk is that, in the next 5 days, the market runs higher and I will only have 25% stock exposure to get those gains.  While this is a risk, I think it’s much more likely that the market continues lower from here.  More on that in the charts below.  This is my 3rd reallocation for the month.  That’s ok since I am increasing my holding in the G fund and reducing my holding in the stock funds.  You can make the reallocation any time between now and 1200EST tomorrow to get tomorrow’s closing price.

Here’s what I see in the 2 charts below.  The first chart shows longer term support levels.  The correction bottomed out (for now) at the trend line.  IF the market continues to roll over from here, I expect to see support again at the trend line and/or the 50WMA.  It may take a couple of weeks to get back down to the 2600ish level.  

The chart below is 6 months daily with the 50DMA (blue) and 200DMA (red).  You can see the price chart bumping up against the 50DMA and rolling over.  IF it continues lower from here, I expect the price to come down and test the 200DMA again.  The 200DMA will intersect with the 50WMA and trend line from the chart above between 2575 and 2600.  That is where I want to get back into the stock funds.  As long as the C fund stays below a closing price of 2750, I will stay at 75%G and 25%C.

Please post questions to comments and hold on!  The ride is NOT over…

Jerry