* Alert * : 21 April 2020
With 7 trading days remaining in the month, I thought long and hard about posting this Alert! We have been talking about significant resistance at/near the 2900 level on the S&P500 (C fund) for the past several weeks. As you can see in the chart below, the price got just below that level and hit resistance at the 50DMA before rolling over. Given the myriad of economic uncertainty out there, I am happy to lock in my small gains since the last Alert and wait for an entry point in May.
IF the market consolidates sideways from here, I would consider getting back into the stock funds on support above the 50DMA. IF it continues lower, I will look for a bottoming pattern and/or a strong close above the 10DMA before moving back to the stock funds.
As of today’s close, the market is telling us to be EXTREMELY cautious! No crystal ball here… If it keeps going lower, we will look closely at volume, technical indicators, investor sentiment and capitulation as signs of an approaching bottom. The next obvious resistance level is the prior low at 2200…
Stay alert!
Jerry
Thanks Jerry, good stuff
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In the the last sentence of your explanation, did you mean to say that the next obvious level of support is at 2200?
Yes. If the market collapses from here, the next major support level to watch is the prior low of 2200.
Are you currently at 100G? I am at 100G and thinking of moving 20C/20S/60G. Futures are down, but the market is moving towards the 200 day moving average. I have been a member of the FB page for a while, but just subscribed on the 21st. I am still trying to learn where to find information on the web page, for example, I am not really sure what your position is right now. I am guessing it is 100G, but if you had another trade, as you alluded to in your post, would you move into equities?
Alex,
Yes, I am currently 100% G Fund. Lo-in to your Member Dashboard tab at http://www.GrowMyThriftSavingsPlan.com for my latest allocations. The posts go to a wide audience that aren’t all TSP investors and don’t have our restrictions. My real-time allocations will always be on the Member Dashboard.
Thanks Jerry!
What are the charts telling us now? With all this bad data rolling out I am expecting the other shoe to drop and the market with it, but the market keeps chugging along like everything is getting back to normal a lot sooner than later.
Sorry for the delay David. Bottom line is, I’m not buying into this rally. I may be more risk averse than some but, I’m just not buying it… We’ll discuss on this week’s Weekend Update!
What are your thoughts of moving some funds into the F fund today?
F Fund looks very strong right now. It just cleared it’s 10DMA and would be a great alternative to the G fund AS LONG AS it stays above its 10DMA. We will look at this in the Weekend Update.