New Allocation: 75% G Fund, 25% C Fund
The stock market has met the definition of a Bear Market, a 20% drop from the most recent high. Fear of the Coronavirus is rampant with travel being restricted, schools being closed, and the media hammering away. Coronavirus is a serious problem, there is no doubt about that. However, in terms of the stock market and TSP, the real problem is the collapse of the REPO market and the banks. I will post about that this weekend.
For our purposes, we look at technical analysis to drive reallocation decisions. The S&P500 (C fund) should open tomorrow close to 2650. This is close enough to the long term trend line, MAJOR SUPPORT (see the chart below). IF this line holds, we will see a significant relief rally. This trend line goes all the way back to the lows of 2009. IF the line holds, I will reallocate more into the C fund as appropriate. IF the line does not hold, I will move back to 100% G fund with relatively small, defined losses.
* As always, I am sharing what I am doing in my personal TSP account. We all must decide, based on personal risk tolerance, when to reallocate between the TSP funds. *
Please post questions to comments and be alert as things will change rapidly!