* Alert * : 12 March 2020
New Allocation: 75% G Fund, 25% C Fund
The stock market has met the definition of a Bear Market, a 20% drop from the most recent high. Fear of the Coronavirus is rampant with travel being restricted, schools being closed, and the media hammering away. Coronavirus is a serious problem, there is no doubt about that. However, in terms of the stock market and TSP, the real problem is the collapse of the REPO market and the banks. I will post about that this weekend.
For our purposes, we look at technical analysis to drive reallocation decisions. The S&P500 (C fund) should open tomorrow close to 2650. This is close enough to the long term trend line, MAJOR SUPPORT (see the chart below). IF this line holds, we will see a significant relief rally. This trend line goes all the way back to the lows of 2009. IF the line holds, I will reallocate more into the C fund as appropriate. IF the line does not hold, I will move back to 100% G fund with relatively small, defined losses.
* As always, I am sharing what I am doing in my personal TSP account. We all must decide, based on personal risk tolerance, when to reallocate between the TSP funds. *
Please post questions to comments and be alert as things will change rapidly!
going wait till 11:30 today see how the morning goes and if you change you thinking at all, lol or the technical analysis change it for you
Not a bad idea! You never know…
I moved my husbands since he has 15 years to go but I can’t take a chance with me being retired. I think I’m going to stay put for now in G and F
Excellent! You have to make these decisions based on YOUR risk tolerance and circumstances.
Jerry why not F instead of G?
It’s a long story but, F is tanking with limited upside potential. We have significant upside potential with the C fund right now.
Yikes, good grief this morning! Buckling in for this roller coaster.
If I made an early March IFT to 30% stocks and 70% in G/F. If I reallocate the 70% to G, does this count as my second IFT?
Yes, that would be your second IFT for the month.
Are text alerts supposed to be functional now? I did not get one for this alert.
Yes! Texts are working and we’re sent along with the email Alert. I’ll look at your account when I get to a computer.
Any further thoughts as it is around 2524
No thought that would change my reallocation decision. I’m pretty comfortable at 75G/25C for now.
I also did not get a text message but rather had to log into my email, glad I checked in this morning. Thanks for the update
I’ll check your account and verify cell # tonight when I get to a computer.
I’m not getting text alerts either. Please check my cell number. 850-712-xxxx. Thanks!
I am not receiving a text message either only email. Thanks for the update
I did not receive a text alert.
I haven’t received an alert text. Got email alert. Could you check on it for me please
I didn’t get a text and only saw this post tonight. Could you check on it for me? Thanks
I did not get a text message either today. Had to check email.
Any thoughts before noon today (Friday) ???
I’m sticking with the allocation from yesterday’s Alert. Things could change next week IF we get a follow thru off of yesterday’s low. Stay tuned…
I’m not quite sure how this works and I am having a hard time finding the answer.
So if I relocate say 20% of my funds to the “C” fund, (before noon) I lock in whatever the share price is that day right?
So now that its low, does that stay locked in at that share price and I can contribute say 80% later at that same lowered share price? Or will it take on the new share price of that day?
Brady, correct. When you reallocate you are essentially selling shares in one fund and buying shares in another fund. The price of each fund changes daily. If you reallocate before 12:00EST you get that day’s closing price.
Nothing stays locked in. You’re buying and selling in terms of the % in your account as opposed to the price of each share. Makes sense?
No text here either
Yes makes perfect sense, thanks for clearing that up for me!
Hi – when you have a chance, can you take a look at my account as well for the text alert. I didn’t get the last one but my cell# is correct in my account (I did get the email alert – thx!)
I signed up and paid for alerts, but did not get the 12 March alert. Please look into this.
We began to offer text functionality before the current market crash. The crash has clearly focused attention on TSP and the need to get ALERTS in a timely manner. We are currently working thru some IT sync issues between software products that is causing text disruptions. We will get the Text issues resolved!
In the mean time, please set GrowMyThriftSavingsPlan to favorites in email and See First in Facebook. This will ensure you get ALERTS as quickly as possible.
Again, we are working the text issues and will get them resolved ASAP!
Thanks for your continued support!
I’ve already lost 30% of my TSP since 1/1/20. I just signed up last night for your alerts and have submitted a change in my allocation and contributions to 75G/25C. Is it still worthwhile for me to make this change or am I ‘selling low and buying high’… which seems like the case to me. If I do nothing and keep my $$ in these more risky funds (C, F, & I) am I buying low?
I would not make that reallocation today. If I were in the stock funds today, I would not reallocate. I would look to get out of the stock funds on the next recovery rally. It really depends on your risk tolerance, time to retirement, how closely you follow the market, etc… I am doing coaching calls until the end of March. If you are interested, send me an email at email@example.com.