* ALERT * : 11 October 2019 (Final)

Friday was a very strong move to the upside for all 3 TSP stock funds.  We are not out of the woods yet but, the risk/reward ratio has turned positive in the short run.  By moving to 60% stock funds and 40% G fund, we will get the majority of the gains as the market goes up.  If we get a weekly close above 3025, I will move to 100% stock funds.  

Because we are not out of the woods yet, if the market rolls over and closes below the 200DMA, I will likely move back to 100% G fund.  I’m watching 2950, the short term trend line, and the 200DMA very closely…  In the long run, a significant crash is coming.  In the short run, a 10% move higher going into early 2020 is definitely possible.

Please post questions to comments or email.  

Have a great week!




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  1. Maybe I’m missing something, please let me know. However, I didn’t change my allocation according to your 2 AUG recommendation (100% G Fund), and the C fund went from 42.5336 (2 AUG) to 42.2731 (11 OCT) to 44.2560 (29 OCT). That’s a 4% gain between 29 OCT and 2 AUG, which is significant and helps offset earlier losses.

    I understand we’re trying to maximize growth long-term, but I question if we’re just trying to time the market and missing important moments? Perhaps another post of long-term results compared to allocation recommendations using these technical indicators could help.

    Thanks for the help and thoughts!

    1. David,
      My goal is to maximize long term gains by being in the stock funds when the market trend/patterns are in my favor, and in the G fund when the market is trending down/high market risk. The 2 August reallocation recommendation came at the beginning of what turned into a bullish triangle consolidation, that completed as of the 31 October recommendation. Market risk is high during consolidation so I was in the G fund. On 11 October the market gapped up thru the 50DMA following support at the 200DMA, prompting a move to 60% stocks/40% G fund. This put the risk back in my favor. On 30 October, the market broke thru the triangle consolidation, prompting a move to 100% stock funds. Please see the second chart on the 11 October ALERT and the 31 October Alert. Thanks. Jerry