* Alert * : 05 March 2021
To say volatility continued this week is an Understatement! We’ll get into all of that in the Weekly Update Show and the Weekly Update Newsletter. For this post, let’s focus on the mechanics of what generated today’s Alert.
Before we get into that, I need to take a minute for some full disclosure… I know many Members of the site get frustrated with getting the Alerts late morning. I understand that sometimes, if you can’t check email or text, you may not see the Alert until after the cut off at Noon east coast time. The worst part of that is you are now out of sync… Well, it happens to All of Us!
I was on a flight this morning from the east coast to the west coast. The flight departed at 7:45AM and landed at 12:40PM (east coast time). I had WiFi on the plane, was able to make the reallocation decision, and Conan put out the text and email. You all should have received the Alert at around 10:30AM this morning. As for me, because TSP now requires 2 factor authentication via text, and I could not receive text messages while in flight, I could not execute the reallocation in my personal TSP account. I’m now out of sync with my own Alerts!! I expect to make a reallocation on Monday that will get me back in sync but, when my PIP is off a bit from yours, now you know why… And now to the Alert!
Daily Perspective
As Louis Pasteur said, “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”… We got lucky today; no doubt about it. I made the reallocation decision at around 10AM when the price had fallen below yesterday’s closing price. That was my line in the sand. At its worst, the C fund was down 2% today before reversing later in the afternoon and closing 2% UP for the day. That’s some HUGE volatility, and today it worked in our favor.
By the end of the day, the C fund closed above its 50DMA but hit resistance at its 10DMA. While we saw a huge reversal today, it was to be expected as the market was oversold in the short term. Today’s rally hit resistance and reversed a bit at the 10DMA. Today COULD be a bottom but it’s way too soon to tell. Either way, we avoided some serious losses and are now in a great position to make big gains when the uptrend resumes!
Intra-Day Perspective
Here’s how things look from an intra-day perspective. We continue to see lower highs and lower lows. We are still firmly within the down trending channel. Today’s intra-day low did not get below yesterday’s intra-day low. That’s a good sign but, the run up and reverse at the 10DMA implies that the price decline may not be over… Next week will be important! Ideally, we come back down to around 3790 and then explode higher. We’ll see…
Bottom Line
We are NOT out of the woods yet! While todays rally was much needed, it’s too early to tell if a bottom is in place.
Make sure to tune in for the Weekly Update Show and the Weekly Update Newsletter this weekend. We have a LOT to discuss!
*If you’re a new Member of the site PLEASE read the Mechanics Of An Alert post in the Smart Reading tab. It explains the process, time hacks, and gives you a peek behind the curtain into what we do to get these Alerts posted real-time. *
Jerry
Great job Jerry. I need to let you and Conan know that Grow My TSP provides a great service. I have made money because of your guidance and knowledge from the first allocation you recommend. Keep your heads up. You all are doing great stuff! Travis
Thanks Travis! Much appreciated!
Thank you Jerry. Personally since I was behind in my allocation with u, I used a move this month to be with the group. Then the new alert came the next day. I stayed with old alert to be able to move with u next time since it’s early in the month. Fingers crossed we get that uptrend soon. Have a nice weekend.
Sherri, sometimes getting in sync is a little tricky. With only 2 moves per calendar month, it can be extremely frustrating! If you are in the G fund right now, you should be good to go. If we do another move in March, the next one will be back into the stock funds.. when the market tells us 🙂
What should we do if we aren’t allowed to make anymore transfer within TSP due to the limited amount of changes they uphold unless it’s going into G fund ? I thought you guys only make recommendations once a months, I just made the one for March 11
Are you still moving to 100% G today, Monday March 8th? I know you weren’t able to Friday per your Alert but has anything changed as a result of Friday’s move up and todays trend?
Thank you.
Ray
Would you be willing to post the PIP based on the Member Dashboard Alerts? I’m curious to see how this tracks to a buy-and-hold strategy. I suppose I could write down each alert somewhere and track separately, but it might be helpful for members to see the PIP of the alerts, such as other TSP advisory services do. Thank you!
Nathan, we are working on a Performance Page for the site. It is on our short list! Once completed, it will show a chart of our performance vs the TSP funds and L funds.