To say volatility continued this week is an Understatement! We’ll get into all of that in the Weekly Update Show and the Weekly Update Newsletter. For this post, let’s focus on the mechanics of what generated today’s Alert.
Before we get into that, I need to take a minute for some full disclosure… I know many Members of the site get frustrated with getting the Alerts late morning. I understand that sometimes, if you can’t check email or text, you may not see the Alert until after the cut off at Noon east coast time. The worst part of that is you are now out of sync… Well, it happens to All of Us!
I was on a flight this morning from the east coast to the west coast. The flight departed at 7:45AM and landed at 12:40PM (east coast time). I had WiFi on the plane, was able to make the reallocation decision, and Conan put out the text and email. You all should have received the Alert at around 10:30AM this morning. As for me, because TSP now requires 2 factor authentication via text, and I could not receive text messages while in flight, I could not execute the reallocation in my personal TSP account. I’m now out of sync with my own Alerts!! I expect to make a reallocation on Monday that will get me back in sync but, when my PIP is off a bit from yours, now you know why… And now to the Alert!
As Louis Pasteur said, “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”… We got lucky today; no doubt about it. I made the reallocation decision at around 10AM when the price had fallen below yesterday’s closing price. That was my line in the sand. At its worst, the C fund was down 2% today before reversing later in the afternoon and closing 2% UP for the day. That’s some HUGE volatility, and today it worked in our favor.
By the end of the day, the C fund closed above its 50DMA but hit resistance at its 10DMA. While we saw a huge reversal today, it was to be expected as the market was oversold in the short term. Today’s rally hit resistance and reversed a bit at the 10DMA. Today COULD be a bottom but it’s way too soon to tell. Either way, we avoided some serious losses and are now in a great position to make big gains when the uptrend resumes!
Here’s how things look from an intra-day perspective. We continue to see lower highs and lower lows. We are still firmly within the down trending channel. Today’s intra-day low did not get below yesterday’s intra-day low. That’s a good sign but, the run up and reverse at the 10DMA implies that the price decline may not be over… Next week will be important! Ideally, we come back down to around 3790 and then explode higher. We’ll see…
We are NOT out of the woods yet! While todays rally was much needed, it’s too early to tell if a bottom is in place.
Make sure to tune in for the Weekly Update Show and the Weekly Update Newsletter this weekend. We have a LOT to discuss!
*If you’re a new Member of the site PLEASE read the Mechanics Of An Alert post in the Smart Reading tab. It explains the process, time hacks, and gives you a peek behind the curtain into what we do to get these Alerts posted real-time. *