New Allocation: 100% G Fund
The S&P500 (C fund) closed below the 10 Day Moving Average (DMA) yesterday for the first time since the October breakout. The market hit resistance at the upper channel line and has reversed. Market risk is now much higher than it was last week. While one day does not make a trend, it looks like we are going to continue within the channel for another cycle.
The C fund chart below shows the price with respect to the 10DMA, 50DMA, and 200DMA. The 50DMA is roughly in the center of the channel and the 200DMA roughly intersects the lower channel line. I am looking for possible support at the 50DMA but more likely at the 200DMA and the lower channel line.
Bottom Line: The market is rolling over. We have to let the near-term pattern play out before making a long term evaluation. Either way, the G fund is the place to be right now to lock in gains we made in October and November.
* As always, this is not a recommendation. This is the allocation I am making in my personal TSP account. Feel free to follow what I’m doing, be more conservative or aggressive. It all depends on your individual risk tolerance. *