* ALERT *: 03 December 2019
New Allocation: 100% G Fund
The S&P500 (C fund) closed below the 10 Day Moving Average (DMA) yesterday for the first time since the October breakout. The market hit resistance at the upper channel line and has reversed. Market risk is now much higher than it was last week. While one day does not make a trend, it looks like we are going to continue within the channel for another cycle.
The C fund chart below shows the price with respect to the 10DMA, 50DMA, and 200DMA. The 50DMA is roughly in the center of the channel and the 200DMA roughly intersects the lower channel line. I am looking for possible support at the 50DMA but more likely at the 200DMA and the lower channel line.
Bottom Line: The market is rolling over. We have to let the near-term pattern play out before making a long term evaluation. Either way, the G fund is the place to be right now to lock in gains we made in October and November.
* As always, this is not a recommendation. This is the allocation I am making in my personal TSP account. Feel free to follow what I’m doing, be more conservative or aggressive. It all depends on your individual risk tolerance. *
I agree with your analysis. In a previous alert, you stated the following “A close above 3150 would be strong evidence that the a-b-c-d-e pattern had failed”. How did you come up with 3150?
When I wrote that, 3150 was upper resistance. Now 3150 is just below the 2 year upper channel line.
Me again, you also stated “A close below 2800 pretty much guarantees that we’re going down to e (IV)” same question as above, how are you coming up with 2800?
A close below 2800 would be just below the 50WMA which is about the same level as the 200DMA. The next support level below that is the Dec 2018 low.
stocks are up today after going to G fund.
Hey Jerry, I received your website upgrade memo but am still not getting weekly updates or the alerts to my email. Thanks for what you do but I need to know more expeditiously please. I am still in the stocks right now but given last weeks gains should I stay or go ahead and proceed to G fund/safe haven?
Hi Paul. My backend shows that you received and clicked on the 8 December Sunday Update and the 12 December Alert. You should be good to go. If you think you’re still having problems please PM me. Thanks!