Based on history (back to 2016) we expected the S&P500 (C Fund) to come down in price to its 200DMA (Day Moving Average). We discussed this in detail both in the Weekly Update Show and the Weekly Update post this past weekend. We still may see prices that low at some point but, not before a new rally attempt that began today.
The market gave us a follow-thru day that was too clear to pass up! The ONLY problem with this chart is that today was a pretty serious reversal day. While the price did close above the 50DMA on much bigger volume than the past several days, and the technical indicators are back to positive, the reversal makes this breakout suspect… That’s why I’m only getting back 50% into the stock funds.
October is a notoriously dangerous month for the markets! I’m not taking any chances with the gains we’ve made over the summer. A daily close below the 50DMA will most likely push me to 100% G fund. A daily close above 3425 will likely push me to 100% stock funds.
Last month (September) we were in a great tactical position by using a move at the end of August. This month we are in a much worse position, having to use a move on the 1st of October. There’s nothing we can do about that. The rules of the TSP are what they are AND, the market tells us when to reallocate… Hold on for the ride. October is going to be interesting!
* As always, this is NOT a recommendation. This is the allocation that works for my personal risk tolerance and observation of the market. Feel free to follow along, give it another day, or disregard completely… *